On the 18th July 2023, the national security authorities of the United States (U.S.) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) met to actualise the decision taken in April this year when South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and US President Biden met and released the Washington Declaration, which included the formation of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG).
At that time, President Yoon hailed the new platform as “more effective” than NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) and asserted that it had “upgraded” the alliance to “a new paradigm based on nuclear weapons.” Some experts expressed the view that these two have different purposes, and therefore the NCG is not going to replace the NPG.
There was a noticeable difference between the versions of the Yongsan Presidential Office and the Pentagon press release, indicating an ambiguity in the US commitment. While the former mentioned that any use of nuclear weapons by North Korea will result in a decisive and overwhelming response from the US and ROK forces, “including U.S. nuclear capability,” the Pentagon changed the wording from “the US nuclear capability” to “the US military capability.”
However, the recent joint readout issued by the White House after the 18th July meeting clarified the above aspect. It stated that the inaugural meeting of the NCG afforded “an opportunity to reaffirm and strengthen the U.S. commitment to provide extended deterrence to the ROK backed by the full range of U.S. capabilities, including nuclear.”
In addition, the joint readout clearly specified the redline and response of the two countries. First, it stated that ‘any nuclear attack by North Korea against the US or its allies is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime.’ Such strong words were not used earlier. Second, it underlined that the reaction to such an act will be swift, overwhelming, and decisive. Third, the readout laid down the charter of the NCG reflecting its permanent place in the bilateral dialogue. The NCG will meet quarterly at appropriate levels and play an integral role in discussing and advancing bilateral approaches, including guidelines, to nuclear and strategic planning and responses to DPRK aggression. Fourth, to bolster nuclear deterrence and response capabilities, the two sides specified steps that included “the development of security and information sharing protocols; nuclear consultation and communication processes in crises and contingencies; as well as coordination and development of relevant planning, operations, exercises, simulations, trainings, and investment activities.”
Significantly, the two sides also discussed joint planning and execution of South Korean conventional support for US nuclear operations, and steps to the enhance visibility of US strategic asset deployments around the Korean Peninsula.
The above mechanism is part of the overall US strategy for strengthening its linkages in the Southeast and East Asia regions to remain relevant for their security. In November, 2022, the US-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Partnership for the Indo-Pacific was formed “to forge still-closer trilateral links, in the security realm and beyond.” Later, Japan and South Korea overcame the historical hurdle of the dispute over South Korea’s 2018 court ruling against Japanese companies’ use of forced Korean labour during World War II, to improve relations between the two countries. According to Yoon, this was necessary in view of the growing nuclear and missile threat from North Korea and the deepening rivalry between the US and China. The prime-mover of the tripartite alliance was obviously the US.
Encouraged by this development, both Japan and South Korea came out with their national security strategies, reflecting their determination to strengthen their armed forces’ capabilities for deterrence. While Japan’s National Security Strategy stresses strengthening deterrent and counter-strike capabilities, South Korea’s National Security Strategy underlines the need to bolster the military’s strength and technological advancements to establish a robust foundation of security.
The US has also strengthened its ties with the Philippines. In February 2023, during the visit of President Marcos Jr to Washington, the US and the Philippines announced their plans to accelerate the full implementation of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the agreement to designate four new agreed locations in strategic areas of the country and the substantial completion of the projects in the existing five agreed locations. In April, the two nations held “two-plus-two” talks with defence and foreign affairs leaders in Washington. Subsequently, the Balikatan exercise was hosted in the Philippines. It was the largest Balikatan exercise in history, with 17,000 troops from the Philippines, the US, and Australia. The two countries established ‘the Bilateral Defense Guidelines’ to modernise and strengthen the alliance. This includes capacity-building activities to respond to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear-related (CBRN) attacks as well as to counter the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) through efficient information sharing.
The US has also formed AUKUS with the UK and Australia. Austin, the US Secretary of Defense, at the Shangri-la conference explaining the future role of AUKUS stated that ‘the alliance will not be limited to nuclear submarines but will include a range of emerging tech areas that can bolster our deterrence, from AI to hypersonic to enhance deterrence.’
Austin further pointed out that US defence cooperation with Singapore, Indonesia, and Vietnam was being taken to the next level, indicating that developing the defence capabilities of its partners is central to its deterrence strategy.
The US-Vietnam ties have improved significantly. This year is the 10th anniversary of the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Partnership. The US and Vietnam partner on programs that include support for Vietnam’s Coast Guard; countering transnational organized crime, including human trafficking, the trafficking of drugs, precursor chemicals, and wildlife; combatting illegal unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing; and improving Vietnam’s ability to maintain maritime domain awareness to protect its sovereignty. The US considers close ties with Vietnam essential for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.
The US is not merely strengthening defence ties with the nations to bolster deterrence, it is also focusing on building their economic capabilities. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) has been joined by fourteen partners-Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam. The partners expressed their commitment to establish a framework for lasting cooperation on issues like workforce development, supply chain monitoring, investment promotion, and crisis response, and to create an IPEF Supply Chain Council to oversee the development of sector-specific action plans designed to build resilience and competitiveness in critical sectors.
This brings up the moot question of the objective of the overall US strategy in the region. While the North Korean and Chinese activities have spurred the US to enhance its linkages with the nations in the region and strengthen deterrence jointly with its allies and partners, the purpose is not to seek conflict or a new Cold War, an Asian NATO, or a region split into hostile blocs but to deter North Korea and China from indulging in activities that raise tensions. The US is only trying to enhance the capabilities of its partners so that they may not become victims of the North Korean or Chinese aggressiveness. In essence, the USA’s policy is to have a credible military force to deter any misguided decision.
However, the tensions are increasing, and the situation may spiral out of hand. The increased tensions have the potential to push the region into conflict. While North Korea keeps firing missiles, China continues with its aggressive activities. It was sad to see that China ignored the proposal for talks with the US. Such activities will bring the regional countries closer to the US. It is up to North Korea and China to behave in a manner that would be acceptable to the International Community and avoid any untoward incident.
Source: Times of India